Week 3 NFL Picks

This will be my first year at attempting a section where I do some sports. I really should own a newspaper or something. Last week, my picks generated 11 wins with 5 losses, I say not bad and I want to start writing my predictions down, this is more of a experiment to see if I am actually good at picking the teams,

Carolina at Houston

Carolina is boasting a 45 points for against only 21 points against, which gives a differential of + 24. Houston, on the other hand, holds a 58 PF(points for) verse a 52 PA(points against), giving us a differential of only 6. This seems like an easy pick going forward, although there was a news alert that Houston was going to start a new QB, and it’s true that Houston offense scores more, however the Carolina defense has let far fewer points to be scored.

Seriously, are you going to out throw the league’s number 1 ranked defense, especially on Mills first ever NFL start. Best of luck to Davis Mills, but I think I know where’d I put my money.

Pick – Carolina Panthers

Indianapolis at Tennessee

Indianapolis used to be my favourite team, when they had Peyton Manning. I also read somewhere that the Colts were the first team to get cheerleaders? That’s pretty great, but I got it off a video game so don’t hold me to it. Indianapolis has scored less than almost every team in the AFC, as well as having their points against in the above the average of points getting scored against with the Patriot and the Bills holding it down at allowing only 23 points to be scored against them. Tennessee is not any better, actually they are even worse! They hold a points against of 68, tying with the Ravens for the worst PA in their conference. At least we know that this game is evenly matched at face value, definitely going to be a good game to watch. Their pass completion percentage is exactly the same for both teams, with Tennessee passing for 14 more yards only.

What do you do when you have two mediocre offenses and two under developed defenses?

Pick – Indianapolis Colts

Atlanta at New York Giants

Both teams are winless, being 4th in their respective divisions. New York has an offense that clearly can score more than Atlanta, but their defense can’t stop the pass significantly better than Atlanta, I don’t have the entire data set in front of me at the moment, yet I’d imagine that .1 isn’t going to be a breaking point. When it comes to the rush game, the Giants actually perform better at running the ball, but defending the ball isn’t anything they should be bragging about. Atlanta had to defend against only 52 running plays to-date, whereas New York has had a whopping 50 plays! The only difference between those 2 is that Atlanta had defended against 2 plays more than New York, and still allowing their defense to give away 3 more total yards.

Since their defense is almost the exact same, my pick has to be New York solely based on the offensive factor.

Pick – New York Giants

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is no doubt the better QB in this match up, with what he has he is just throwing for average yardage 2.7 points higher than Justin Herbert. Is that what wins football games though, the last time these teams met, the Chargers walked away with the W. It turns out that KC has the worst defense in the league, but on the plus side they have the league’s second best pass offense. They have held their opponents to a single passing touchdown, but let through 7 rushing touchdowns allowing 404 yards on 67 attempts, making them the worst defensive team against the rush. Kansas City has let over 900 yards taken against them, making them the worst overall defense.

The deciding factor was Los Angeles passing defence, sitting at 4th in the league, whereas KC is 20th.

Pick – Los Angeles Chargers

As you can tell, I am a numbers guy. The numbers never lie, a team could write a player off as injured and “did not practise”, yet there he is running out of that tunnel. I under estimated how long this would end up taking me, as I am telling you a few numbers and calculations here and there, I am doing them all for every team, as well as other shenanigans.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Ben is still quarterbacking for the Steelers, should he retire? With a 62% pass completion (I know it’s early in the season) I am not sure he is getting off on the right foot. Joe Burrow’s isn’t that much better with 68%, although he’s thrown about twenty less balls. With only two games, you have to think that maybe the completion percentage doesn’t matter too much. Cincinnati out ranks Pittsburgh on just about every factor, but one factor that stands out is interceptions, Ben doesn’t throw like a softball pitcher. I was going to say like a girl, but you know, it’s 2020 and I know a lot of girls who could throw harder than me with their left hand. Remember that college team that allowed a a female kicker or something? They were trying to make a statement about equality, but ended up losing horribly.

The point is, Ben may throw more and better, but with a bottom tier defense and rushing yards to bear in mind.

Pick – Cincinnati Bengals

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns

Am I reading this right? Chicago Bears have completed 44 throws for a total yardage of 270 yards, while the Browns have thrown 40 for a total of 503 yards? Chicago’s overall defense is slightly better, Cleveland’s running game is third in the league so far, and their points for highly outranks Chicago.

I’m taking the home team here, that yardage is really garbage.

Pick – Cleveland Browns

Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions

The Ravens have the best running game in the league, but they rank as the worst pass defence of the league as well. What can I say, Detroit is in the upper middle of the pack, yet they get the majority of their points by passing. Jared Goff throws a lot, and I mean a lot, with 93 throws puts them first in the league for pass attempts. However they net yards per attempt(N/A) is less than Baltimore’s N/A, and Detroit somehow has let 765 points scored against them, giving them the second worst in the league.

My only guess is that Detroit has played tough teams, because their defense is lower middle in ranking.

Pick – Detroit Lions

New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots

This match up used to be a big one, with Drew Brees against a patriots superstar offense led by Tom Brady. Now, not so much, Drew Brees retired, Brady went off to Tampa Bay, convinced Gronkowski to play as well, and they won the Super Bowl last year. New Orleans offense, doo doo, total yards overall, doo doo, their running game isn’t even anything to brag about, yet they have 5 touchdowns by passing? Their pass completion percentage is barely over 50%, where does their offense come from, this is some type of voodoo.

I spent a lot of time bad-mouthing the Saints, can you guess whom I picked?

Pick – New England Patriots

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars

Kyler Murray is throwing for 74 percent, to give the Arizona Cardinals the second seat in points for, total yardage and a fifth seat in their NY/A. Jacksonville on the other hand, bottom 5 team in the NFL, for a QB that has thrown 5 interceptions in the last 2 games, I’m sure this is the week where we separate the good from the great. Arizona’s defense is just on a different level than Jacksonville’s D-line.

You can tell I am not one for the chit-chat, my paragraphs are getting smaller and smaller.

Pick – Arizona Cardinals

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle

I don’t know how how Seattle gains on average 9 yards per attempt, and Minnesota gets around 6, their defense allows on average 6, and Minnesota gets around 8. Minnesota and Seattle both have garbage defense, However Seattle can make more of the yards they do gain. Seattle also has the least amount of average plays made per drive, yet they score more and gain more yards.

Just because of that, I can’t bleed purple.

Pick – Seattle Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers.

Tom Brady and the Bucs are a team that literally defies the numbers. They’ve allowed more yards to be gained by the opposing team, yet they still win. Brady’s offense isn’t even all that compared to the Chargers offense, the Chargers have a better running game, pass yards per attempt, total pass and run yardage, better pass completion, less turnovers; however, the have a slightly less better scoring drive percentage. I am going to go out on a limb, against all the numbers, against my better judgement here.

This actually feels wrong, I am actually relying on my gut.

Pick – Tampa Bay

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49’s

Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay started off rough, I think their coach is building that defense. Other than that, with a win last game I think the O-line is finally working. And if Rodgers doesn’t feel like throwing well, they have that other QB who’s fairly decent; yet, San Francisco is a fairly good offensive team, I can’t argue there. This is why I should have started the year with these statistics, then I could have compared the change and see if the improvement in Green Bay has a large positive slope. I mean, Green Bay has had a huge leap from New Orleans, but I don’t think I have the data to conclude anything, or I am just too lazy.

Pick – San Francisco 49’s

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas can score, they have an offense, but they also get scored on just as much. They have a point differential of 1, whereas the Eagles can defend and score. This is a fairly easy pick.

The easy picks are always the most worrisome.

Pick – Philadelphia Eagles

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