NFL Week 4 Predictions

Well, last week was a bust. I went 9 out of 16, all because I decided to take Tampa Bay as my gamble instead of Green Bay as a gamble. I would of had eleven if I just listened to the math on Tom Brady and the Bucs, and I would have seen the negative slope with San Fran and the positive slope with Green Bay.

Aaron Rodgers was looking a little depressed at the start of Week 2, even the coach was trying to get the crowd to get in the game! Of course, tell anyone else that and they look at you like you’re crazy. I probably am, but that turned out to be the right call. On to week 3 now that I have learned from my mistakes, a bit.

We start off Thursday with…

jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Who is this quarterback, 7 interceptions, over 100 pass attempts? Jacksonville seriously needs to put that guy on Adderall, the only reason I can see that they’re getting him to pass so much, is to get him comfortable throwing to his team. Cincinnati is boasting a 71% completion rate when their QB throws a pass, however it is key to note that a lot of teams are attempting to throw against this team. The rush favors Cincinnati over Jacksonville, and Jacksonville has many turnovers lost and they are first in the league have 1 in 4 of their drives result in an offensive turnover. I am still trying to wrap my head around why this is a good thing, shouldn’t that imply they are ranked last?

Pick – Cincinnati Bengals

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets

Is there much really to say here? There is a huge point differential for the Jets, -50. The Jets are also 0 and 3, Tennessee is also in the negatives, with -13, but for those of you who don’t know, -13 is a lot closer to 0 that -50. I mean a lot closer. I don’t even think there is a need to break this down any further, I don’t anticipate the Jets getting a win here, both these teams have mediocre defense, I don’t imagine that that having a defense that is slightly better will translate into more points for New York, When you score on about 10% of you drives, and have a points for of 20, 3 games into the season, it doesn’t look too promising.

Pick – Tennessee Titans

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles

The chiefs are worrying me with their defense, even if Mahomes passes phenomenally. We saw last week that the Chargers were able to hold the Chiefs, but the Eagles are no Chargers team. Just as great the Chiefs offense is, that how bad their defence is. Although Philadelphia doesn’t have that great of an offense, they make it up in defense. Look at these point differentials, KC has a -3 while Philly has a 0. KC scores 30 more points than Philly, yet also allows thirty more points than Philly. Turnovers and Fumbles worry me for KC,

What can I say, KC end up scoring at the end of their drive 50% of the time, and last weeks loss was so close.

Pick – Kansas City Chiefs

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas really put it to the Eagles this past monday night. They had an exceptional running game, and Philadelphia couldn’t maintain a proper line against them. At least that is what I saw, in the end though, Carolina is a beast on defense when it comes to the run. Panthers have kept the opposition to a low 2.6 net yards per attempt, and 4.3 when defended pass attempts. It’s pretty clear, Dallas has their work cut out for them, but Dallas can score more. Dallas has less passing yards gained, 100 more rushing yards gained, but they allowed more yards to be taken against them in both categories. Carolina is coming off a rest week, yet Dallas has played tougher opponents, namely beating the Chargers,

Dak Prescott probably can’t do a back-to-back, Carolina has played crummy teams like the Jets.

Pick – Carolina Panthers

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints.

This is a fairly easy pick.

Pick – New Orleans Saints

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings

Baker Mayfield has lead the browns over the Chicago bears, and averages this year 7.9 net yards per attempt. Minnesota had a great game against Russel Wilson and the Seahawks, passing for 323 yards and completing 79% of his throws. I will say Minnesota is good at drawing penalties, or I just may be tired reading these numbers. Mayfield isn’t as good as Kirk Cousins in passing, but Cleveland has scored 8 touchdowns by running the ball. Cincinnati beat Chicago in week 2, and Cleveland held Chicago down to one score.

The reason I say that is because Minnesota lost to Cincinnati week 1.

Pick – Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

The 0 and 3 Detroit Lions! Detroit is on paper a better offensive team, but we have the usual dilemma of the opposition, Chicago being the better defensive team. I have to ask, how did Chicago beat Cincinnati though in week 2? Bonkers. Well having their offense only able to muster 40 points in the last few games, coupled with your quarter back still only managing a 2.7 net yards per attempt on the pass, I am going to have to go with the away team.

Pick – Detroit Lions

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills

Looks like Bills to me.

Pick – Buffalo Bills

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins

Both teams have horrible defense. Indianapolis has slightly better offense, I think it’s going to come down to who is injured and who isn’t, or more specific stats (like performance in the red zone, special teams (I’ve seen some kickers have some consistent trouble). The QB’s aren’t anything to brag about, but Miami just came of a great game with the Las Vegas Raiders.

I may change my mind, but for now it seems like my pick is solid.

Pick – Indianapolis Colts

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons

Washington does have a better offense, yet again their opposition has a a better defense. Washington has achieved about the same amount of yards in fewer attempts on the pass, and their run game verse Atlanta is pretty much dead even. These team both have a win, and it was against the New York Giants, however Washington just barely squeaked by. Also, Matt Ryan has been throwing for a 70% completion rate, he has thrown about 20 more times than Heinicke who is just barely under 70%. Yet if you can get more yards per throw, does the total number of throws matter?

Ehhh, the numbers here don’t favor Atlanta.

Pick – Washington Football Team

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49’ers

Seattle has a better throwing game, San Francisco has allowed less yards gained on the pass by a large margin. The average yards gained per drive is more for Seattle than for San Fran, by a little bit. Get this though, San Fran has more points for, more yards gained, but significantly less net yard gained per play attempt; meaning, yes San Fran has more yards gained, but they took more plays to get there, what worries me is that in the last 3 weeks, San Francisco has turned over 4 balls and lost 2 fumbles.Seattle has a better rush, offense and defense are both superior in net yards. San Fran has allowed more yards to be gained on them than by them, yet still have a positive point differential.

Defense tends to win the battle for me.

Pick – San Francisco 49’ers

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

This should be a very interesting game, to high scoring offenses, and both teams are 3 – 0. The number that sways me toward the Rams is that they on average score more points per drive. The rams rush is a little bit weaker on offense but a lot stronger on defense. Arizona can block the pass better, they throw more which gives them more yards gained. However, the Rams played Brady and won, and he can pass well too, so, yeah.

I’m not going to lie, I’m a little bit worried that Arizona may gain more ground here.

Pick – Los Angeles Rams

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers

Pittsburgh hasn’t made their presence felt at all. With an average points gained per drive sitting at 1 and a bit, even with Rodger’s having a sad boy phase, he managed to get the packers offense cumulatively to a higher, well, everything; net yards per pass attempt, net yards per play, net rush yards per attempt, a higher yards gained per average drive, running the same amount of plays. The Green Bay Packers take this one for me,

Watch Big Ben get angry and unleash the complete fury of a New England Patriots era Tom Brady.

Pick – Green Bay Packers

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

There really isn’t much to talk about, the Broncos can hold their opponents to less than a point per average drive, the pass defense is decent to say the least, the only problem they are going to have is the rush. What are the Ravens going to do, run the ball down the entire field?

Pick – Denver Broncos

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots

Tom Brady is coming home! Tampa Bay’s offense is vastly more competent than the Patriots. but they have the worst pass defence in the league. I am not to worried because New England isn’t doing so hot anymore, they have had an easy first 3 weeks, minus the Saints. Opening game against Miami, and they lose by one point, but that’s okay because they had the Jets the following week, and yeah well they won. The Bucs had Dallas, then Atlanta and then the Rams, It’s no wonder that statistically they are behind in terms of defense., I’m sure that doesn’t correct the entire difference.

Seriously though, you have three games only included in the statistics, and one game is against the New York Jets, and you want to tell me you’re not going to have a slight inflation (in this case, a deflation in yards given up on defense). Give. Me. A. Freaking. Break.

Pick – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Raiders for life. That’s it, no analysis. Raider defense outperforms Chargers in almost every way possible, the Chargers just have less points against. Los Angeles has exactly a 50% scoring drive percentage, and they have more forced turnovers, penalties on the opposition called. The only issue is that those numbers don’t translate into many more yards and even fewer first downs.

But then again, I am surely biased.

Pick – Las Vegas Raiders

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s